Barack Obama better make hay in Iowa.

The Washington Post today features a poll that shows Hillary Clinton is expanding her lead among potential Democratic voters. According to the survey, 53 percent of Dems favor HRC, 20 percent back Obama, and 13 percent fancy John Edwards. This marks a 12-point boost for Clinton and a 7-point drop for Obama since early September, which means Clinton's edge has gone from 14 points to 33 points. Polls are, as the cliche goes, just snapshots. And any single poll can be an outlier. But if this marks any trend, Obama ought to be worried. At some point, he has to close the gap--not watch it widen.

If this trend is real and holds, there's more pressure on Obama in Iowa, the site of the first caucus. According to polls taken in Iowa over the past month, Clinton's lead is much smaller, ranging between 3 and 9 points, with Edwards in the hunt, vying for a second or third place. One poll even had Obama in the top slot, 4 points ahead of Clinton. Bottom line: in Iowa, where Democratic voters have already paid a lot of attention to the race, Obama is in a competitive position.

Yet if the primary season arrives and HRC is maintaining even half the lead she has in the national polls, Obama will have to smite her in the Hawkeye State. That could well be his best--if not only--chance to stop the Clinton machine. (Right now, Clinton is averaging a 20 percent lead in New Hampshire polls.) With deep pockets, an extensive and battle-tested organization in key states, and a strength in national polls, Clinton could be in a position to roll Obama and Edwards when the voting starts--unless she is cut down at the very beginning. Of course, even were she to lose a close battle in Iowa, she could recover and plow ahead in New Hampshire and other states.

The conventional wisdom until now was that Iowa was a make-or-break state for John Edwards. He's spent a lot of time and energy there. He clearly has been following an Iowa-first strategy. And I previously believed that Iowa might not be so influential, given that if Clinton and Obama placed second or third there, each would still have a lot of money left and plenty of passionate support in other states. (Moreover, my hunch is that voters in other states are increasingly less likely to follow the lead of the we-get-to-go-first Iowans.) But now I'm beginning to wonder if Iowa is the place where Obama, too, must make his stand. It could be that his politics of hope will depend on the caucus-goers of Ottumwa.

BUY THIS ALBUM. Rocker-folkie-singer/songwriter-activist Steve Earle has released a new album called Washington Square Serenade. It's something of a dual love letter to New York City, his new hometown, and to his wife, singer/songwriter Allison Moorer. Still, the album contains a dose of Earle's leftwing politics. (For a profile I did of Earle in 2004 for Mother Jones, click here.) He sings (favorably) of immigrants and serves up a song honoring Pete Seeger. And there's a wonderful cover of Tom Waits' Way Down in the Hole, which will be the title song for the upcoming (and final) season of The Wire on HBO The show will feature Earle reprising his earlier role as a recovering redneck addict. ("It's not a stretch," he says.) The disc is another fine entry in Earle's (seemingly) never-ending canon.

Posted by David Corn at October 3, 2007 10:52 AM