Is George W. Bush's so-called surge in Iraq succeeding? War-backers claim it is. At least militarily, for, after all, they cannot say with a straight face that any political progress has been made in Iraq. But for the other side--that is, for the case that the surge is a flop--see Patrick Cockburn's report in The Independent. He knows the Arab world far better than any of the neocon armchair warrior/columnists. Here's a small slice of the article:

The surge has changed very little in Baghdad. It was always a collection of tactics rather than a strategy. All the main players--Sunni insurgents, Shia militiamen, Iraqi government, Kurds, Iran and Syria--are still in game.

One real benchmark of progress--or lack of it--is the number of Iraqis who have fled for their lives. This figure is still going up. Over one million Iraqis have become Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) since the Samarra bombing, according to the Red Crescent. A further 2.2 million people have fled the country. This exodus is bigger than anything ever seen in the Middle East, exceeding in size even the flight or expulsion of the Palestinians in 1948. A true sign of progress in Iraq will be when the number of refugees, inside and outside the country, starts to go down.

Read the rest here.

Posted by David Corn at August 7, 2007 11:26 PM